Global soybean ending stocks forecast above five-year average

This puts global soybean ending stocks at 8.14 Mtresult of a 1.6 Mt increase in Brazilian ending stocks (31.31 Mt for 2022/2023), while US ending stock estimates remained unchanged from last month’s forecast and US ending stocks Argentina’s 2022/2023 closing have been revised downwards.

Rapeseed production for the EU increased by 1 Mt to 19.2 Mt thanks to higher production for France, Germany and Poland. Partially offset by a reduction of 0.5 Mt to 19.5 Mt for the Canadian canola crop due to lower yield.

In terms of production, analysts noted that global soybean production was forecast 1.22 Mt higher at 390.99 Mt in October than the USDA’s September forecast, largely due to a revision up 3 Mt in Brazilian production for 2022/2023, to 152 Mt.

Corn Challenges

It’s the reverse story in corn.

Global ending stocks are now projected at 301.19 Mt, down 3.34 Mt from last month’s estimate, down 5.83 Mt from the previous year’s level and 12, 51 Mt below its five-year average. Closing inventories in the United States and China were revised down to last WASDE​.

As for global corn production, the USDA forecasts it will decline by 3.84 Mt, with production reaching 1,168.7 Mt. The USDA cited lower US and European production for 2022/ 2023 as reason.

The misfortunes of wheat

For wheat, world ending stocks are forecast at 267.54 Mt for 2022/2023, down 1.03 Mt from last month’s forecast and down 8.47 Mt from l year, said the CRM Agri team. These ending stocks are also down a massive 17.85 Mt from their five-year average.

World wheat production was also revised down by 2.22 Mt to 781.7 Mt in the October update from September. “This puts wheat production at 16.48 Mt below its five-year average and primarily reflects lower production in the United States. »