Agricultural office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday lowered its forecast for French soft wheat stocks by the end of the 2021/22 season due to a drop in the harvest estimate, but kept its export forecast unchanged. outside the European Union.
Soft wheat stocks at the end of June in France, the European Union’s leading producer and exporter of cereals, were expected at 2.4 million tonnes, against 2.9 million forecast last month, FranceAgriMer said.
French soft wheat exports outside the European Union for the 2021/22 campaign were still expected at 9.6 million tonnes, up almost 30% compared to last season.
France harvested a poor harvest last year, which has significantly reduced its export availabilities in 2020/21.
Exports outside the EU in 2021/22, however, were behind 2019/2020 and 2018/2019 after three months of the campaign, but could pick up in the second half, especially to Egypt, if Russia curbs its exports, Marc Zribi, chief from FranceAgriMer’s culture unit, told reporters.
FranceAgriMer has included in its supply and demand outlook the latest estimate of soft wheat production from the Ministry of Agriculture, which lowered its forecast on Tuesday to 35.2 million tonnes against 36.1 million last month. The harvest was still 21% higher than last season’s poor harvest.
In other grains, the office cut its forecast for French barley ending stocks to 1.31m tonnes from 1.36m as a reduction in the production estimate was partly offset by a drop exports outside the EU.
FranceAgriMer did not give a corn supply and demand outlook for 2021/22, saying the slow harvest would likely be revised upwards and show better yields than currently estimated.
The maize harvest started late this year. We had to go back to 2014 to see such late harvests, says Catherine Cauchard, head of FranceAgriMer’s crop watch service.
Projected maize stocks at the end of last season remained unchanged at 1.80 million tonnes.
Source: Reuters (Report by Sybille de La Hamaide, edited by Forrest Crellin, Jason Neely and Barbara Lewis)